Hunches

Trouble with a capital T ...and that rhymes with V and that stands for Venezuela. This could get very hot, very fast. It is, after all, our nation's standing policy that America IS the primary power in the western hemisphere. A president like Dumbya or Cheney (or Grampa or Caribou Barbie, for that matter...) will not let this go without comment or response. Honestly, I doubt Obama or Biden would either, but the critical difference is that the Republicans have demonstrated their willingness to meet diplomacy with force. One wonders where they'll get the soldiers.... Oh! Maybe they'll just get the Fed to print some more! Oh wait, that's money....

A couple of persistent hunches are bothering me today. Something tells me the airline industry and possibly the media industry as well are in for a big shakeup in the next few years. Airlines are almost obvious- with fuel prices rising, their already-precarious profitability will be put severely at risk. Maybe that recent spate of accidents will make passengers look twice at Amtrak or something, I don't know (I know I'm not eager to fly anytime soon, if ever again). Add to these accidents the massive scheduling problems they had such a hard time with earlier this year, and people may begin to see the value of the alternatives. If it takes three hours to cycle through two airports, plus an hour or so in the air (assuming no in-flight delays... hah!), suddenly a five-hour drive or three-hour train ride might not seem as bad. Ticket prices sure as hell aren't coming down. "Competition" in the airline industry is only a matter of how little they can get away with paying their employees.

Insurance might play a part in this, too. As health care approaches a single-payer solution, insurance companies will have to either raise their rates or find a replacement for all those lost health-care dollars. Keep an eye on your home and auto insurance rates for clues.

I'm not sure how a media industry collapse would be caused, or transpire, but experience sure shows us that massive consolidation of industry -apparently any industry-- is unhealthy. Significant difference between this industry and most others is that the media don't rely on us as customers- we're mostly irrelevant to them until their advertisers start to balk.

The fiscal recklessness of a(nother) Republican BushCheneyMcCain administration just might ensure that my hunches come to pass.