It's the new '60s.

Pakistan: Benazir Bhutto, President Musharraf's wildly popular political opponent, has been assassinated. She had just returned a few months ago to Pakistan from years of exile, after being ousted from power in a coup orchestrated by then-General Musharraf, who promised free and fair elections again and again and again, but never seemed able to allow them to happen. Pakistan is now falling apart, and it's not likely to go alone. Don't worry so much about war with Iran now- US engagement in Pakistan is now almost a foregone conclusion. And that mess is going to make the mess in Afghanistan look like a game of Scrabble. Mark my words.

This makes for a very sticky situation. Pakistan is still very sensitive about outside involvement in their activities, ever since the British left and the UN split the subcontinent into Muslim and Hindu nations (Pakistan and India, respectively). Even before Bhutto's assassination, US troops were expressly forbidden to enter Pakistan, even in pursuit of known Taleban soldiers (even Bin Laden). The government of Pakistan may be on good terms with ours, but the people of Pakistan -including their soldiers-- don't like us much, and certainly don't want us in their neighborhoods. They will fight us as though we are invaders.

A couple of additional things to consider: Musharraf is Georgie's kind of guy (or maybe I should say Dick's kind of guy, depending on who you think does the thinking in the White House). They let their power do the talking, they don't compromise unless there's absolutely no way around it, and worse: they play religious zealots on TV.

Even worse still: this military dictatorship, already facing popular revolt in urban areas and uncontrollable tribal elements on the frontiers, has nukes. An active, fully tested and armed, nuclear arsenal. Which they have already demonstrated a willingness to use.

I don't have a clear idea about how this is all going to play out, but I'm thinking that it's not going to be pretty. Pakistan is a Rogue State. If Musharraf doesn't step down in January as he said he would, then Big Trouble might well come to pass. India might try to intervene (probably the worst case scenario, because it would almost inevitably lead to -if not begin with- a nuclear confrontation). China seems to be courting India, so they might have a hard time staying out of it. Separately, we might try to intervene (it might be seen by some as a way to ensure a Republican victory in November, if we were fully engaged in a real war), but in that case I would expect India and China to try to stay clear of the fray while trying to talk us out of it. Bottom line: No country currently involved in Afghanistan will be safe until Musharraf is out of power. And even that may not be the end of the trouble.